With approximately 230 million inhabitants, today Nigeria is the largest country in Africa by population and one of the largest in the world. In terms of gross domestic product (GDP), the country ranks first in Africa and is among the 30 largest economies in the world. These few elements alone are enough to understand the importance of Nigeria in West Africa and in the entire continent.
Nigeria is a melting pot of peoples (about 500 indigenous languages are spoken by its different communities) as well as an example of the multi-ethnic nature of the African states, established after gaining independence from the colonial powers, and of the difficulties these states had to overcome in their contemporary history to assert their sovereignty – from political vicissitudes to the management of resources in the territory.
Nigeria is undoubtedly one of the most complex countries in Africa. As early as the late 1960s, the recently established Nigerian republic had to face several challenges. Building on those challenges, the Federal Republic of Nigeria proved capable of initiating a process to stabilise its internal political framework. One example of this stability was undoubtedly the succession of leaders from different parties governing the country.
More than a tenth of Nigeria’s population is now concentrated in Lagos, the economic centre of the country, which embodies all the contradictions found in the Giant of Africa. Built on the largest lagoon in West Africa by encompassing several settlements overlooking the Gulf of Guinea, this megalopolis is the quintessential embodiment of Nigeria, with all its challenges and opportunities. According to estimates, its population is expected to double within the next thirty years. Huge efforts have been made to relaunch the city, ensuring a cleaner and greener environment, improved road and water infrastructure, a more efficient public transport and waste management system, improved security conditions, and greater consultation of citizens in order to make local government choices more widely shared.
The challenges to be overcome remain considerable: above all, the still too high number of informal settlements where the poorest population is forced to live, the irregularity of electricity supplies, high unemployment rates, and the lack of infrastructures accompanying commercial development.
Abuja, the federal capital of Nigeria, built at the turn of the 1970s and 1980s in the geographic centre of the country to symbolise national unity between the different regions of the territory, is instead the centre of political life and a constantly evolving city. It is a modern agglomeration, characterised by wide open spaces and not surprisingly containing architecture that is a blend of African, Arab and Christian cultures.
However, Nigeria is more than just Lagos or Abuja, as is evident when considering that the country covers an area over three times as large as Italy. Contrary to what happens in the rest of the African continent, the ancient urban tradition in Nigeria limits the importance of rural forms of settlement, which nevertheless assume, in the different populated areas, peculiar and often clearly diverse characteristics. Slightly more than half the population lives in rural areas, concentrated in the Yoruba region (in the south-west of the country) and in the northern areas inhabited by the Hausa and Kanuri communities.
From north to south, the yellow, dry Sahelian landscape transforms into vast savannah areas crossed by the Niger River and its tributary Benue, stretching between the mountains of Cameroon and Benin, and into the equatorial climate forests that characterise the southernmost regions. Almost the entire territory is part of the Niger basin, the longest river in West Africa that flows into the Gulf of Guinea in a branched delta, and is thus home to an extraordinary biodiversity that is now threatened by human interventions that have severely altered its natural balance. The country has no significant natural lakes, only a few artificial reservoirs, created by damming watercourses for energy purposes.
Nigeria is truly the Giant of Africa and has all the potential to establish itself as the continent’s champion thanks to the vastness of its territory, its demographic weight, and its many agricultural and mineral resources, especially oil. In the last decade, the country has also managed to improve its prospects and has put in place initiatives to attract foreign investments (significant those destined for start-ups). At the same time however, the pre-existing economic and social imbalances, as well as the consequences on the territory of deforestation and ongoing climate change, represent the most fertile ground for the continuation of phenomena of insecurity and the radicalisation of political and religious movements (for example, the actions of Boko Haram in the north) that have slowed down the full development of some areas of the country on the path to inclusive and sustainable growth.
Looking at the numbers and forecasts, according to the Africa Economic Outlook – the report produced by the African Development Bank – real GDP growth will average 3.3% in 2023-24, with inflation high at 19.6% in 2023 before falling to 13.6% during 2024. According to the report, the removal of fuel subsidies and the increase in revenue could further reduce the fiscal deficit to below 5% of GDP.
Ambassador De Leo: Nigeria is a vital part of the continent
Although population growth and urban development are two elements often mentioned when talking about Africa, they are even more prominent in Nigeria. Our question to Ambassador Stefano De Leo, Head of Mission at the Italian Embassy in Abuja, was: how much do these numbers ‘weigh’ and what prospects can they offer?
“Nigeria’s population, currently standing at 230 million, is projected to reach 400-500 million by 2050, according to the country’s projections and demographic trend. Nigerians will account for about one-sixth of the entire African continent’s population estimated at 3 billion. These striking numbers are coupled with a very low average age of the population, less than 25 years. The current developments open up wide-ranging perspectives, especially with regard to the evolution of Nigerian society and the demographic trend of the country, with the growth of new economic sectors such as start-ups and artificial intelligence, and with potential repercussions on migration dynamics”.
Ambassador, in light of these macro trends, what are the future driving sectors of the Nigerian economy and what are the areas that Italian companies could or should keep an eye on?
“In order to absorb the population growth rate, one third of the residential centres will still have to be built between now and 2050. This opens up enormous potential in terms of infrastructures, construction, road and rail links, with energy requirements that will still have to be met using the country’s enormous natural resources, especially gas, but also with an ever-increasing focus on renewable energy sources. A further driving sector is agribusiness, a cornerstone for the production and supply of food for the growing population. This includes the processing and packaging chains”.
From a strictly commercial point of view, can Nigeria represent a market for certain categories of Made in Italy products?
“Nigeria qualifies to be a strategic market not only for its territory but for the entire regional context. Despite the current financial and economic difficulties, caused by the ambitious reforms introduced by President Tinubu, which aim to re-launch the country’s future competitiveness, Nigeria is aware of its potential, strengthened also by its stability in a context of critical regional security. The exponential increase in population will go hand in hand with rising consumption needs, opening up vast opportunities for Made-in-Italy products, which Nigerians have always been interested in. Already today, more than half of the regional interchange is provided by Nigeria with demand likely to grow in the coming years and decades”.
With half a billion inhabitants in the next 30 years, meaning one sixth of the entire continent’s population, Nigeria will be a country with which one will necessarily have to relate. Is this true?
“It will be increasingly difficult to interact with Africa without taking Nigeria into account. The country, whose potential has yet to be fully expressed, already represents the main point of reference for the countries on the western side of Africa in terms of economy and stability, and aims to play a leading economic and political role also on issues that affect regional integration dynamics and the growth of Africa’s influence in international fora”.
Could you give us a sense of the current Italian presence in Nigeria? Aside from ENI’s historical presence, is there anything else of significance to note?
“Italy boasts a historic presence in the country, primarily with ENI, SAIPEM and TECNIMONT operating in the strategic Oil&Gas sector. The Grimaldi Group manages the largest private hub for maritime transport and port logistics in Lagos, and Leonardo SPA boasts decades of collaboration in the defence sector. The NASCO Group, a local Italian-owned company, has been successfully operating in the agri-food sector since the 1960s, and there are several historical companies operating in the country’s construction sector. Italian companies work in concert with the relevant Nigerian ministries to implement master plans for the railway network and the electricity distribution network, which are strategic sectors for the country’s development”.
Which are the relations existing between Nigeria and Italy? In what way are Italian institutions present in the country?
“Relations between Italy and Nigeria are strongly rooted in the energy and maritime development sector, with potential for further development. An ICE office was opened last year in Lagos and the main association of Nigerian entrepreneurs (MAN) participated in the recent Italy-Africa business dialogue forum organised by MAECI and Confindustria last May in Rome. Given the country’s potential, the presence of SACE is a strategic key to strengthening the Italian business system in Nigeria. In April this year, the Veneto Region and the Edo State (one of the 36 states within the Federal Republic of Nigeria) signed a Memorandum of Understanding for collaboration. In this context, a potential bridging role between the two countries could also be played by the increasingly integrated Nigerian community in Italy, in addition to the creation of mixed Chambers of Commerce”.
What suggestions would you give to a company wishing to operate in Nigeria? What are the available instruments?
“The potential of Nigeria is proportional to the particular complexity of the country. It is necessary to know how to move carefully in this context full of opportunities, but not without critical issues to be kept in mind, which concern security, governance and regulatory issues. ICE and SACE already play and will increasingly play a key role in the inclusion of Italian companies in the Nigerian commercial and productive scenario, also with a view to the Mattei Plan”.
