Energy security is once again taking centre stage globally, driven by an increasingly fragile geopolitical context that elevates energy to a priority of national and economic security. The World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO-2025) of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) describes a scenario in which traditional risks related to fuel supply are intertwined with new vulnerabilities, particularly those related to critical minerals supply chains and the resilience of electricity systems. The decisions policymakers make in this juncture will be crucial, as they need to operate in a complex environment where conflict instability coexists with a surplus of oil supply and low prices.
A key factor for the industrial fabric is the concentration of the strategic minerals market. The IEA analysis highlights that a single country, China, dominates the refining of 19 of the 20 strategic energy-related minerals, holding an average market share of around 70%. These raw materials are essential not only for batteries and electric vehicles, but also for power grids, artificial intelligence chips, and defence systems. This vulnerability is worsened by the fact that, as of November 2025, more than half of these strategic minerals are subject to export controls, making it urgent for importing countries to take concerted political action to diversify their supply chains, as market forces alone appear insufficient to correct this imbalance.
Alongside the mining issues, the report certifies the definitive entry into the “Age of Electricity,” with demand growing at a much faster pace than overall energy consumption in all projected scenarios. Global electricity demand is estimated to increase by approximately 40% by 2035 in scenarios based on current and declared policies. This increase is driven by high-tech sectors and light industry, but also by electric mobility and, ever more significantly, by data centres and artificial intelligence services. A financial figure captures this transition: in 2025 global investment in data centres is expected to reach $580 billion, surpassing the $540 billion allocated to oil supply. The rapidity of this expansion, however, is putting pressure on infrastructure, highlighting that investment in electricity networks is growing at less than half the rate of those in generation, thus creating congestion and delays in connections.
From an oil and gas perspective, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is poised to undergo deep transformation. An unprecedented additional export capacity of 300 billion cubic metres per year is expected to become operational by 2030, equal to a 50% increase in available global supply. Approximately half of this new capacity is under construction in the United States, followed by Qatar. This oversupply promises to reshape global gas trade, offering lower international prices and strengthening European energy security following the cut in pipeline supplies from Russia. The issue remains, however, as to where these volumes will be absorbed: while Europe and China have driven demand over the past decade, the future market appears to be shifting toward India and Southeast Asia, where price sensitivity is greater.
A clear indicator of this trend is the automotive market: between now and 2035, half of the growth in the global car fleet will come from emerging and developing economies other than China. The nuclear sector is also making a comeback, with over 40 countries including it in their strategies and more than 70 GW of new capacity currently under construction, the highest level over the last thirty years, also supported by technology companies’ interest in small modular reactors.
This evolution of the energy landscape is of primary importance for the Italian economic system, as it redefines the geography of exports and strategic partnerships. The abundance of LNG provides Italy with the opportunity to strengthen its role as a gas hub in the Mediterranean, taking advantage of more competitive prices for the manufacturing industry. At the same time, the massive need to upgrade global electricity grids and the demand for energy efficiency and renewable technologies in emerging markets are opening up significant opportunities for leading Italian companies in plant engineering, electrical components, and transition technologies, while the concentration of mineral refining requires quick diversification of supply sources to safeguard the national automotive and technology supply chain.
